Notes:
This is an extended and corrected version of the paper, also included in arXiv preprint arXiv:1506.07861 (2015). The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com

Abstract.
Stochastic evolution of Chemical Reactions Networks (CRNs) over time is usually analysed through solving the Chemical Master Equation (CME) or performing extensive simulations. Analysing stochasticity is often needed, particularly when some molecules occur in low numbers. Unfortunately, both approaches become infeasible if the system is complex and/or it cannot be ensured that initial populations are small. We develop a probabilistic logic for CRNs that enables stochastic analysis of the evolution of populations of molecular species. We present an approximate model checking algorithm based on the Linear Noise Approximation (LNA) of the CME, whose computational complexity is independent of the population size of each species and polynomial in the number of different species. The algorithm requires the solution of first order polynomial differential equations. We prove that our approach is valid for any CRN close enough to the thermodynamical limit. However, we show on four case studies that it can still provide good approximation even for low molecule counts. Our approach enables rigorous analysis of CRNs that are not analysable by solving the CME, but are far from the deterministic limit. Moreover, it can be used for a fast approximate stochastic characterization of a CRN.
